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Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Moquegua play FC Cajamarca in the Liga 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Moquegua averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. FC Cajamarca averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Moquegua won 3, FC Cajamarca won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Moquegua and 1.44 for FC Cajamarca. This points to a Moquegua double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Moquegua
18%
Draws
39%
FC Cajamarca
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Moquegua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Moquegua picked up more points recently compared to FC Cajamarca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 16%
FC Cajamarca Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moquegua FC Cajamarca
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga 1
Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga 2
FC Cajamarca vs Moquegua
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga 2
Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca
2:1
Sep 6, 2025 Liga 2
FC Cajamarca vs Moquegua
2:1
Aug 2, 2025 Liga 2
Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Chipao R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mejia C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

FC Cajamarca Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moquegua 42 / 100
FC Cajamarca 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moquegua FC Cajamarca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Moquegua or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Moquegua attacking → ← attacking FC Cajamarca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moquegua scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

FC Cajamarca let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Moquegua went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Cajamarca lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 39
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016