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AI Match Summary
The National League 2025/2026 game between Morecambe and York City finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward York City.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Morecambe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and York City come out ahead of Morecambe on wins alone.
- Morecambe are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- Regular National League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors York City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Morecambe Clean Sheet 20%
York City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Morecambe | York City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 16 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.69 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.69 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 28, 2026 National League
Morecambe vs York City
0:1
Nov 15, 2025 National League
York City vs Morecambe
4:2
May 7, 2016 League Two
Morecambe vs York City
1:1
Dec 19, 2015 League Two
York City vs Morecambe
2:1
Apr 14, 2015 League Two
York City vs Morecambe
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Morecambe Compare
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
York City Compare
Top Goalscorer Banks O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Morecambe 76 / 100
York City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Morecambe York City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Morecambe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Morecambe found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: York City conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Morecambe went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Morecambe VS York City
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Morecambe
(Home) 26 Sept
Oxford City
1 : 1 Morecambe
19 Sept
Morecambe
2 : 0 Southport
12 Sept
Morecambe
3 : 0 Brackley
08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1 Morecambe
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0 Buxton
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Morecambe
2 : 0 Southport
12 Sept
Morecambe
3 : 0 Brackley
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0 Buxton
28 Aug
Morecambe
2 : 1 Telford
18 Aug
Morecambe
0 : 1 South Shields
Page 1 of 3
York City
(Away) 26 Sept
York City
3 : 0 Gillingham
22 Sept
York City
1 : 2 Rotherham
19 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 0 York City
15 Sept
York City
1 : 3 Newcastle Utd U21
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0 Swindon
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 0 York City
05 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1 York City
01 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 York City
22 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 York City
14 Jul
Pickering Town
4 : 2 York City
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York City | 46 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 114:41 | 108 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 46 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 88:41 | 106 |
| 3 | Carlisle | 46 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 87:51 | 95 |
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 95:58 | 90 |
| 5 | Scunthorpe | 46 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 77:62 | 82 |
| 6 | Southend | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 83:47 | 81 |
| 7 | Forest Green | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 82:52 | 81 |
| 8 | Halifax | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 69:66 | 70 |
| 9 | Hartlepool | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 54:59 | 68 |
| 10 | Woking | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 69:54 | 63 |
| 11 | Tamworth | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 63:71 | 62 |
| 12 | Boston United | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 63:67 | 59 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 55:65 | 57 |
| 14 | Solihull Moors | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 71:72 | 56 |
| 15 | Wealdstone | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 67:74 | 56 |
| 16 | Yeovil | 46 | 15 | 6 | 25 | 48:68 | 51 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 57:80 | 50 |
| 18 | Gateshead | 46 | 14 | 8 | 24 | 54:90 | 50 |
| 19 | Sutton | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 59:79 | 47 |
| 20 | Aldershot | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 69:87 | 46 |
| 21 | Brackley | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 40:75 | 42 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 66:103 | 38 |
| 23 | Braintree | 46 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 38:76 | 36 |
| 24 | Truro | 46 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 42:72 | 34 |
Promotion - League Two (Main)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
