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Moreton City Excelsior U23 vs Peninsula U23

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland U23
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AI Match Summary

The NPL Queensland U23 game between Moreton City Excelsior U23 and Peninsula U23 finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moreton City Excelsior U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Moreton City Excelsior U23
15%
Draws
0%
Peninsula U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Peninsula U23 haven't matched Moreton City Excelsior U23's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Moreton City Excelsior U23 a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Queensland U23 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Clean Sheet 15%
Peninsula U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moreton City Excelsior U23 Peninsula U23
Matches Played 25 22
Wins 15 6
Draws 2 2
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.56 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.48 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Moreton City Excelsior U23 vs Peninsula U23
3:0
Apr 18, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Peninsula U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moreton City Excelsior U23 84 / 100
Peninsula U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Peninsula U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moreton City Excelsior U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moreton City Excelsior U23 found the back of the net in 92% of recent matches (25 games).

Peninsula U23's defensive record shows goals conceded in 95% of 22 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Peninsula U23 has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Moreton City Excelsior U23 VS Peninsula U23
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Moreton City Excelsior U23

(Home)
13 Sept
Rochedale U23
2 : 0
Moreton City Excelsior U23
06 Sept
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 1
Gold Coast Knights SC U23
28 Aug
Rochedale U23
3 : 1
Moreton City Excelsior U23
16 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 2
Queensland Lions U23
08 Aug
Olympic FC U23
1 : 2
Moreton City Excelsior U23
Page 1 of 5

Peninsula U23

(Away)
16 Aug
Peninsula U23
0 : 3
Brisbane City U23
08 Aug
Gold Coast Knights SC U23
5 : 2
Peninsula U23
01 Aug
Queensland Lions U23
3 : 0
Peninsula U23
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 0
Peninsula U23
11 Jul
Peninsula U23
0 : 1
Wynnum Wolves U23
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rochedale U23 22 16 2 4 61:27 50
2 Moreton City Excelsior U23 22 14 2 6 60:31 44
3 Queensland Lions U23 22 13 5 4 52:24 44
4 Gold Coast Knights SC U23 22 14 1 7 58:39 43
5 Gold Coast U23 22 13 2 7 52:45 41
6 Eastern Suburbs U23 22 9 4 9 43:32 31
7 QLD State Team U17 22 8 1 13 46:57 25
8 Brisbane City U23 22 7 3 12 42:54 24
9 Olympic FC U23 22 7 2 13 35:55 23
10 Wynnum Wolves U23 22 6 3 13 29:52 21
11 Peninsula U23 22 6 2 14 36:57 20
12 Magic United TFA FC U23 22 5 1 16 27:68 16
Promotion - NPL Queensland U23 (Play Offs)