Sport Picks
Moreton City Excelsior U23 vs QLD State Team U17 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Australia
NPL Queensland U23 
AI Match Summary
Moreton City Excelsior U23 in this NPL Queensland U23 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moreton City Excelsior U23.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior U23
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Moreton City Excelsior U23 lately — more wins on the board than QLD State Team U17.
- Model gives Moreton City Excelsior U23 a 51% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Clean Sheet 11%
QLD State Team U17 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior U23 | QLD State Team U17 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 25 | 22 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 8 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.56 | 2.09 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 2.59 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.31 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 2, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
QLD State Team U17 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
4:3
Jul 14, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Moreton City Excelsior U23 vs QLD State Team U17
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moreton City Excelsior U23 38 / 100
QLD State Team U17 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moreton City Excelsior U23 QLD State Team U17
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moreton City Excelsior U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Moreton City Excelsior U23 found the back of the net in 92% of recent matches (25 games).
QLD State Team U17 let in goals in 91% of their last 22 matches.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Recent resilience: Moreton City Excelsior U23 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Moreton City Excelsior U23 VS QLD State Team U17
2.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Moreton City Excelsior U23
(Home) 13 Sept
Rochedale U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior U23
06 Sept
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 1 Gold Coast Knights SC U23
28 Aug
Rochedale U23
3 : 1 Moreton City Excelsior U23
16 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 2 Queensland Lions U23
08 Aug
Olympic FC U23
1 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior U23
Page 1 of 5
06 Sept
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 1 Gold Coast Knights SC U23
16 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 2 Queensland Lions U23
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 0 Peninsula U23
14 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
1 : 0 QLD State Team U17
11 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
6 : 1 Magic United TFA FC U23
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QLD State Team U17
(Away) 16 Aug
QLD State Team U17
3 : 4 Gold Coast Knights SC U23
08 Aug
Queensland Lions U23
2 : 1 QLD State Team U17
02 Aug
QLD State Team U17
4 : 3 Moreton City Excelsior U23
19 Jul
Olympic FC U23
1 : 2 QLD State Team U17
14 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
1 : 0 QLD State Team U17
Page 1 of 5
08 Aug
Queensland Lions U23
2 : 1 QLD State Team U17
19 Jul
Olympic FC U23
1 : 2 QLD State Team U17
14 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
1 : 0 QLD State Team U17
05 Jul
Brisbane City U23
0 : 2 QLD State Team U17
28 Jun
Peninsula U23
3 : 5 QLD State Team U17
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochedale U23 | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 61:27 | 50 |
| 2 | Moreton City Excelsior U23 | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 60:31 | 44 |
| 3 | Queensland Lions U23 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 52:24 | 44 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights SC U23 | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 58:39 | 43 |
| 5 | Gold Coast U23 | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 52:45 | 41 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs U23 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43:32 | 31 |
| 7 | QLD State Team U17 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 46:57 | 25 |
| 8 | Brisbane City U23 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 42:54 | 24 |
| 9 | Olympic FC U23 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 35:55 | 23 |
| 10 | Wynnum Wolves U23 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 29:52 | 21 |
| 11 | Peninsula U23 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 36:57 | 20 |
| 12 | Magic United TFA FC U23 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 27:68 | 16 |
Promotion - NPL Queensland U23 (Play Offs)
