Sport Picks
Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Australia
NPL Queensland Wolter Park, Brisbane 
Match Events
10'
10'
Scott J.
(Penalty)
23'
23'
Woolley J.
44'
44'
Satharasinghe D.
AI Match Summary
The NPL Queensland game between Moreton City Excelsior and Peninsula finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Moreton City Excelsior's 2.33 goals per match outpaces what Peninsula have produced (1.87).
- Model gives Moreton City Excelsior a 44% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Moreton City Excelsior Clean Sheet 12%
Peninsula Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Peninsula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 15 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.33 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior
3:2
Jul 18, 2026 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior
1:4
Jun 17, 2025 NPL Queensland
Peninsula vs Moreton City Excelsior
0:2
May 10, 2025 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moreton City Excelsior Compare
Top Goalscorer Satharasinghe D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Peninsula Compare
Top Goalscorer Woolley J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Joseph N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moreton City Excelsior 38 / 100
Peninsula 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moreton City Excelsior Peninsula
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moreton City Excelsior Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Moreton City Excelsior found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).
H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.
Peninsula's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
Solid form: Moreton City Excelsior remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Moreton City Excelsior VS Peninsula
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Moreton City Excelsior
(Home) 05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
29 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 0 Gold Coast Knights SC
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2 Queensland Lions
08 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0 Moreton City Excelsior
Page 1 of 6
29 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 0 Gold Coast Knights SC
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2 Queensland Lions
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 2 Peninsula
11 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior
4 : 3 Magic United TFA FC
20 Jun
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 2 Wynnum Wolves
Page 1 of 3
Peninsula
(Away) 12 Sept
Queensland Lions
1 : 0 Peninsula
05 Sept
Peninsula
3 : 2 Moreton City Excelsior
30 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 1 Peninsula
14 Aug
Peninsula
2 : 2 Brisbane City
08 Aug
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 2 Peninsula
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Queensland Lions
1 : 0 Peninsula
30 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 1 Peninsula
08 Aug
Gold Coast Knights SC
2 : 2 Peninsula
01 Aug
Queensland Lions
1 : 0 Peninsula
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior
2 : 2 Peninsula
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queensland Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 57:22 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 49:27 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 51:35 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights SC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46:32 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 47:48 | 34 |
| 6 | Wynnum Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 34:35 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic FC | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 39:43 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United TFA FC | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 33:59 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 34:52 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast Utd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 26:39 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar U23 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 32:52 | 16 |
Promotion - NPL Queensland (Play Offs)
Relegation - Queensland Premier League (Main)
