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Mori vs Castegnato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Costanzo P.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 game between Mori and Castegnato finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castegnato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Mori
15%
Draws
85%
Castegnato
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castegnato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Castegnato carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Castegnato a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mori Clean Sheet 10%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mori Castegnato
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 22 14
Goals Scored 0.63 1.2
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Mori vs Castegnato
0:1
Oct 1, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Mori
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mori Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Castegnato Compare

Top Goalscorer Costanzo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mori 10 / 100
Castegnato 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mori Castegnato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castegnato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castegnato let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Difficult form: Castegnato registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Mori scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Mori VS Castegnato
0.25 Goals Scored 1
3 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mori

(Home)
05 May
Portogruaro
9 : 0
Mori
28 Apr
Mori
0 : 2
Virtus Bolzano
21 Apr
Mestre
2 : 0
Mori
14 Apr
Mori
1 : 3
Cjarlins Muzane
07 Apr
Este
3 : 0
Mori
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Castegnato

(Away)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)