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Stadium Background

Morocco vs Lesotho

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Honneur Stadium, Oujda
Morocco Logo

Morocco

7 - 0
FT
Lesotho Logo

Lesotho

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Diaz B.
Assist: Ounahi A.
15' Event
Diaz B.
Assist: Ezzalzouli A.
25'
Rasethuntsa R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 7-0, with Morocco advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Morocco
20%
Draws
24%
Lesotho
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Morocco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Lesotho haven't matched Morocco's recent run of results.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Morocco taking it.
  • Morocco have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Morocco, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Morocco Clean Sheet 68%
Lesotho Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morocco Lesotho
Matches Played 36 31
Wins 30 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 1 15
Goals Scored 2.36 0.68
Goals Conceded 0.42 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Morocco vs Lesotho
7:0
Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Lesotho vs Morocco
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morocco Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz B.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Rahimi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Lesotho Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morocco 95 / 100
Lesotho 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morocco Lesotho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morocco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morocco found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (36 games).

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Lesotho let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Solid form: Morocco remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Morocco VS Lesotho
2.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Morocco

(Home)
09 Jul
France
2 : 0
Morocco
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
30 Jun
Netherlands
1 : 2
Morocco
24 Jun
Morocco
4 : 2
Haiti
19 Jun
Scotland
0 : 1
Morocco
Page 1 of 8

Lesotho

(Away)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
29 Mar
Lesotho
2 : 1
Seychelles
26 Mar
Seychelles
0 : 0
Lesotho
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)