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Morpeth vs United of Manchester

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Henderson A.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Morpeth and United of Manchester finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Morpeth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Morpeth
17%
Draws
70%
United of Manchester
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: United of Manchester

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • United of Manchester carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on United of Manchester taking it.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Morpeth Clean Sheet 12%
United of Manchester Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morpeth United of Manchester
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs United of Manchester
1:0
Sep 16, 2025 NPL Premier Division
United of Manchester vs Morpeth
0:0
Jan 4, 2025 NPL Premier Division
United of Manchester vs Morpeth
4:1
Aug 10, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs United of Manchester
0:1
Feb 24, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs United of Manchester
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morpeth Compare

Top Goalscorer Henderson A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

United of Manchester Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morpeth 14 / 100
United of Manchester 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morpeth United of Manchester

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morpeth's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

United of Manchester let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Morpeth went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Morpeth VS United of Manchester
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.88
71% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Morpeth

(Home)
18 Jul
Morpeth
2 : 2
Hebburn Town
25 Apr
Morpeth
2 : 0
Warrington Town
18 Apr
Rushall
1 : 0
Morpeth
11 Apr
Hednesford
4 : 0
Morpeth
06 Apr
Morpeth
3 : 0
Whitby
Page 1 of 6

United of Manchester

(Away)
20 Jul
Trafford
0 : 3
United of Manchester
18 Jul
United of Manchester
1 : 4
Salford
14 Jul
United of Manchester
2 : 0
Rochdale
11 Jul
Runcorn Linnets
0 : 4
United of Manchester
04 Jul
United of Manchester
1 : 2
Bradford City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hebburn Town402310775:4179
2Hednesford402211762:3577
3United of Manchester402191065:4172
4Warrington Rylands401813959:4267
5Stockton4018121062:5063
6Lancaster4017111256:4562
7Gainsborough4016111350:4559
8Leek Town401771650:5258
9Cleethorpes4014131356:4755
10Ashton United4014111547:5453
11Ilkeston401571852:5452
12Bamber Bridge401481852:5250
13Guiseley401391846:5648
14Warrington Town4012121643:6348
15Hyde4011141558:6347
16Rushall4012111748:6147
17Whitby4010131743:5543
18Workington4010131743:5843
19Prescot Cables409151640:5042
20Morpeth401262238:5442
21Stocksbridge408122038:6536
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)