Sport Picks
Mortagua FC vs Alcains
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 
Match Events
3'
3'
Cotel A.
25'
25'
Fabio Erins
45'
45'
Jimenez R. A. A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
65%
15%
20%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mortagua FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Alcains haven't matched Mortagua FC's recent run of results.
- Mortagua FC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 68%
Alcains Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mortagua FC | Alcains |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.06 | 0.77 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Alcains
2:2
Sep 29, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alcains vs Mortagua FC
3:1
Jan 22, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Alcains
0:4
Sep 25, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alcains vs Mortagua FC
2:3
Mar 6, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Mortagua FC vs Alcains
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mortagua FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Cotel A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rianco J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Alcains Compare
Top Goalscorer Fabio Erins
1 Goals Assists Leader Jimenez R. A. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mortagua FC 95 / 100
Alcains 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mortagua FC Alcains
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mortagua FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alcains's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Mortagua FC scored in 66% of their last 32 games.
Recent resilience: Mortagua FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Mortagua FC VS Alcains
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Mortagua FC
(Home) 20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2 Leca
13 Sept
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 1 Mortagua FC
06 Sept
Mortagua FC
2 : 1 Fazendense
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1 Mortagua FC
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2 Leca
06 Sept
Mortagua FC
2 : 1 Fazendense
16 Aug
Mortagua FC
3 : 1 GD Os Nazarenos
18 Apr
Mortagua FC
2 : 1 Electrico FC
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2 Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 4
Alcains
(Away) 20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
13 Apr
Alcains
0 : 2 Alverca B
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1 Alcains
29 Mar
Alcains
0 : 1 Uniao de Coimbra
Page 1 of 6
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1 Alcains
15 Mar
Marinhense
1 : 0 Alcains
02 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 0 Alcains
09 Feb
Mortagua FC
2 : 2 Alcains
26 Jan
O Elvas CAD
3 : 0 Alcains
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O Elvas CAD | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 41:10 | 65 |
| 2 | Fatima | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 30:12 | 49 |
| 3 | Arronches Benfica | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 27:17 | 48 |
| 4 | GD Peniche | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 31:23 | 39 |
| 5 | Os Marialvas | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 30:28 | 37 |
| 6 | Mortagua FC | 26 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 23:21 | 37 |
| 7 | Marinhense | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 24:21 | 36 |
| 8 | Alverca B | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28:25 | 35 |
| 9 | SB Castelo Branco | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 23:21 | 34 |
| 10 | SC Pombal | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 29:34 | 32 |
| 11 | Uniao de Coimbra | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:44 | 25 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23:33 | 21 |
| 13 | Alcains | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 17:36 | 18 |
| 14 | Pero Pinheiro | 26 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 12:39 | 12 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)
