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Mortagua FC vs Fazendense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Bula
35' Event
Pais J.
(Penalty)
75' Event
Gomez T.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Mortagua FC and Fazendense finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mortagua FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Mortagua FC
15%
Draws
26%
Fazendense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mortagua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mortagua FC come out ahead of Fazendense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mortagua FC's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 17%
Fazendense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mortagua FC Fazendense
Matches Played 30 14
Wins 14 3
Draws 5 1
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.03 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.07 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Fazendense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mortagua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Bula
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Fazendense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mortagua FC 66 / 100
Fazendense 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mortagua FC Fazendense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mortagua FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Fazendense conceded in 86% of 14 recent games.

Mortagua FC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Mortagua FC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mortagua FC VS Fazendense
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mortagua FC

(Home)
11 Oct
Mortagua FC
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
13 Sept
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 1
Mortagua FC
06 Sept
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Fazendense
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

Fazendense

(Away)
11 Oct
Malveira
3 : 1
Fazendense
27 Sept
Alverca B
5 : 0
Fazendense
20 Sept
Fazendense
6 : 1
Figueirense
13 Sept
Fazendense
1 : 2
O Elvas CAD
06 Sept
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Fazendense
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Oliveira Hospital 5 4 0 1 9:5 12
2 Uniao Da Serra 5 3 2 0 8:5 11
3 Os Marialvas 5 3 1 1 8:2 10
4 Mortagua FC 5 3 1 1 9:5 10
5 O Elvas CAD 5 3 1 1 7:4 10
6 SB Castelo Branco 5 3 0 2 8:9 9
7 Naval 1893 5 2 1 2 6:4 7
8 Nogueirense 5 1 4 0 8:7 7
9 Malveira 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
10 Fatima 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
11 Alverca B 5 1 0 4 7:7 3
12 Sertanense 5 0 3 2 3:7 3
13 GD Os Nazarenos 5 1 0 4 4:11 3
14 Fazendense 5 0 1 4 6:15 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)