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Mortagua FC vs Marinhense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Ferrao J.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Mortagua FC and Marinhense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mortagua FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Mortagua FC
22%
Draws
18%
Marinhense
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Mortagua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mortagua FC come out ahead of Marinhense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mortagua FC's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Mortagua FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 68%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mortagua FC Marinhense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 0.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Marinhense
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Mortagua FC
0:1
Mar 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Mortagua FC
0:1
Nov 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Marinhense
1:0
Feb 4, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Mortagua FC
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mortagua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrao J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Marinhense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mortagua FC 68 / 100
Marinhense 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mortagua FC Marinhense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mortagua FC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Marinhense let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Difficult form: Marinhense registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Mortagua FC VS Marinhense
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mortagua FC

(Home)
18 Apr
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Electrico FC
12 Apr
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Mortagua FC
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Os Marialvas
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

Marinhense

(Away)
18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0
Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Sernache26167333:1255
2Oliveira Hospital26148439:1350
3Naval 189326146636:2348
4SB Castelo Branco26144843:2646
5Uniao Da Serra26128638:2744
6Mortagua FC26116923:2639
7Os Marialvas261061033:2836
8Fatima26881027:2932
9Lajense26881037:3732
10GD Peniche26861234:4330
11Samora Correia26851327:3529
12Marinhense26591220:3824
13Electrico FC26541733:6219
14SC Lusitania26451724:4817
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)