Sport Picks

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Mostaganem vs Paradou

Algeria Algeria

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Belhamiti Larbi, Mostaganem
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Bendouma A.
13'
Bahoussi A.
30' Event
Toumi M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Mostaganem and Paradou finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mostaganem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Mostaganem
20%
Draws
60%
Paradou
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paradou

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paradou come out ahead of Mostaganem on wins alone.
  • Paradou are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Mostaganem Clean Sheet 10%
Paradou Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mostaganem Paradou
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 6 2
Losses 19 19
Goals Scored 0.77 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs Paradou
3:2
Oct 26, 2025 Ligue 1
Paradou vs Mostaganem
1:0
Jun 21, 2025 Ligue 1
Paradou vs Mostaganem
1:3
Dec 26, 2024 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs Paradou
0:2
Apr 28, 2023 Algeria Cup
Paradou vs Mostaganem
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mostaganem Compare

Top Goalscorer Motrani Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Moudene A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Paradou Compare

Top Goalscorer Bendouma A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mostaganem 10 / 100
Paradou 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mostaganem Paradou

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paradou Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Paradou conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Paradou registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Mostaganem found the back of the net in 42% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

Mostaganem VS Paradou
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
3.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mostaganem

(Home)
05 Jun
Mostaganem
2 : 2
El Bayadh
19 May
ES Ben Aknoun
3 : 0
Mostaganem
12 May
USM Alger
1 : 1
Mostaganem
07 May
Mostaganem
0 : 4
Saoura
10 Apr
Mostaganem
0 : 3
Khenchela
Page 1 of 7

Paradou

(Away)
05 Jun
Paradou
0 : 2
ES Setif
22 May
USM Alger
4 : 2
Paradou
19 May
Rouisset
2 : 1
Paradou
07 May
Paradou
5 : 3
Constantine
17 Apr
El Bayadh
0 : 1
Paradou
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MC Alger 30 20 5 5 41:18 65
2 Saoura 30 16 7 7 40:26 55
3 CR Belouizdad 30 14 11 5 47:24 53
4 Oran 30 14 7 9 36:31 49
5 Kabylie 30 11 12 7 40:31 45
6 Olympique Akbou 30 12 9 9 34:31 45
7 Khenchela 30 12 8 10 37:37 44
8 ES Ben Aknoun 30 11 10 9 41:39 43
9 Constantine 30 11 10 9 35:30 43
10 USM Alger 30 8 15 7 34:29 39
11 ES Setif 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
12 Rouisset 30 9 9 12 30:35 36
13 ASO Chlef 30 9 7 14 26:31 34
14 Paradou 30 7 3 20 35:54 24
15 Mostaganem 30 4 7 19 18:52 19
16 El Bayadh 30 2 11 17 17:40 17
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2026/2027 (Main)