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Mostaganem vs Saoura

Algeria Algeria

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Belhamiti Larbi, Mostaganem
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sub
Bibi A. A. B. In: Gaagaa A.
Out: Bibi A. A. B.
21' Event
Saadi I.
26' Event
Sikiru A.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Mostaganem and Saoura finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Saoura.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Mostaganem
35%
Draws
55%
Saoura
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Saoura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Very High Confidence
  • Saoura carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Saoura are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Mostaganem Clean Sheet 10%
Saoura Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mostaganem Saoura
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 17
Draws 6 6
Losses 19 7
Goals Scored 0.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 3.25 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs Saoura
0:4
Jan 15, 2026 Algeria Cup
Mostaganem vs Saoura
0:2
Dec 20, 2025 Ligue 1
Saoura vs Mostaganem
3:2
May 10, 2025 Ligue 1
Saoura vs Mostaganem
0:0
Nov 23, 2024 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs Saoura
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mostaganem Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Saoura Compare

Top Goalscorer Sikiru A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saadi I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mostaganem 10 / 100
Saoura 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mostaganem Saoura

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Mostaganem scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Saoura conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Mostaganem has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mostaganem VS Saoura
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
3.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mostaganem

(Home)
05 Jun
Mostaganem
2 : 2
El Bayadh
19 May
ES Ben Aknoun
3 : 0
Mostaganem
12 May
USM Alger
1 : 1
Mostaganem
07 May
Mostaganem
0 : 4
Saoura
10 Apr
Mostaganem
0 : 3
Khenchela
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Saoura

(Away)
05 Jun
Saoura
3 : 1
Constantine
20 May
El Bayadh
0 : 0
Saoura
12 May
Saoura
0 : 0
CR Belouizdad
07 May
Mostaganem
0 : 4
Saoura
17 Apr
Saoura
3 : 0
Khenchela
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MC Alger 30 20 5 5 41:18 65
2 Saoura 30 16 7 7 40:26 55
3 CR Belouizdad 30 14 11 5 47:24 53
4 Oran 30 14 7 9 36:31 49
5 Kabylie 30 11 12 7 40:31 45
6 Olympique Akbou 30 12 9 9 34:31 45
7 Khenchela 30 12 8 10 37:37 44
8 ES Ben Aknoun 30 11 10 9 41:39 43
9 Constantine 30 11 10 9 35:30 43
10 USM Alger 30 8 15 7 34:29 39
11 ES Setif 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
12 Rouisset 30 9 9 12 30:35 36
13 ASO Chlef 30 9 7 14 26:31 34
14 Paradou 30 7 3 20 35:54 24
15 Mostaganem 30 4 7 19 18:52 19
16 El Bayadh 30 2 11 17 17:40 17
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2026/2027 (Main)