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Mostaganem vs Saoura

Algeria Algeria

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Belhamiti Larbi, Mostaganem
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sub
Bibi A. A. B. In: Gaagaa A.
Out: Bibi A. A. B.
21' Event
Saadi I.
26' Event
Sikiru A.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Mostaganem and Saoura finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Saoura.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Mostaganem
35%
Draws
32%
Saoura
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Saoura carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Mostaganem are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Mostaganem Clean Sheet 68%
Saoura Clean Sheet 22%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mostaganem Saoura
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 5 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 0.66 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.86 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs Saoura
0:4
Jan 15, 2026 Algeria Cup
Mostaganem vs Saoura
0:2
Dec 20, 2025 Ligue 1
Saoura vs Mostaganem
3:2
May 10, 2025 Ligue 1
Saoura vs Mostaganem
0:0
Nov 23, 2024 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs Saoura
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mostaganem Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Saoura Compare

Top Goalscorer Sikiru A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saadi I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mostaganem 50 / 100
Saoura 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mostaganem Saoura

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mostaganem Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Mostaganem went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mostaganem found the back of the net in 41% of recent matches (29 games).

Saoura has conceded goals in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mostaganem VS Saoura
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mostaganem

(Home)
26 Sept
Mostaganem
1 : 0
Hussein Dey
19 Sept
Mostaganem
1 : 2
USM Blida
05 Jun
Mostaganem
2 : 2
El Bayadh
19 May
ES Ben Aknoun
3 : 0
Mostaganem
12 May
USM Alger
1 : 1
Mostaganem
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Saoura

(Away)
22 Sept
Biskra
0 : 0
Saoura
18 Sept
JS El Biar
4 : 0
Saoura
13 Sept
Horoya
3 : 1
Saoura
04 Sept
Saoura
1 : 0
Horoya
11 Aug
ES Ben Aknoun
2 : 2
Saoura
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MC Alger 30 20 5 5 41:18 65
2 Saoura 30 16 7 7 40:26 55
3 CR Belouizdad 30 14 11 5 47:24 53
4 Oran 30 14 7 9 36:31 49
5 Kabylie 30 11 12 7 40:31 45
6 Olympique Akbou 30 12 9 9 34:31 45
7 Khenchela 30 12 8 10 37:37 44
8 ES Ben Aknoun 30 11 10 9 41:39 43
9 Constantine 30 11 10 9 35:30 43
10 USM Alger 30 8 15 7 34:29 39
11 ES Setif 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
12 Rouisset 30 9 9 12 30:35 36
13 ASO Chlef 30 9 7 14 26:31 34
14 Paradou 30 7 3 20 35:54 24
15 Mostaganem 30 4 7 19 18:52 19
16 El Bayadh 30 2 11 17 17:40 17
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)