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Motagua vs Alianza FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Motagua Logo

Motagua

3 - 0
FT
Alianza FC Logo

Alianza FC

Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sibrian J.
13'
Sub
Rivera N. In: Monteagudo J.
Out: Rivera N.
30' Event
Discua O.
Assist: Melendez D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-0. This leg finished 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Motagua
35%
Draws
24%
Alianza FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Motagua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Motagua lately — more wins on the board than Alianza FC.
  • Motagua are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Motagua have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Motagua, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Motagua Clean Sheet 68%
Alianza FC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motagua Alianza FC
Matches Played 29 25
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alianza FC vs Motagua
0:0
Sep 10, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Motagua vs Alianza FC
3:0
Nov 5, 2020 CONCACAF League
Alianza FC vs Motagua
1:2
Nov 1, 2019 CONCACAF League
Motagua vs Alianza FC
3:0
Oct 25, 2019 CONCACAF League
Alianza FC vs Motagua
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer Discua O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Macias J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Alianza FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motagua 77 / 100
Alianza FC 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motagua Alianza FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motagua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motagua found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Alianza FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 25 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Motagua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Motagua VS Alianza FC
1 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Motagua

(Home)
10 Oct
Motagua
2 : 1
CD Choloma
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0
Alianza FC
Page 1 of 6

Alianza FC

(Away)
09 Oct
FAS
2 : 1
Alianza FC
04 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Luis Angel Firpo
01 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 1
Platense Municipal
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
24 Sept
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Fuerte San Francisco
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Olimpia 6
Luis Angel Firpo 0
Cartagines 5
Saprissa 4
Alajuelense 5
Marathon 3
Alianza FC 0
Motagua 3
Semi-finals
Olimpia -
Cartagines -
Alajuelense -
Motagua -
Final
TBD -
TBD -