Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Motagua vs Olancho

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Motagua Logo

Motagua

1 - 1
FT
Olancho Logo

Olancho

Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Melendez C.
34'
Rodriguez D.
57' Event
Zuniga Bernardez C. J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Motagua and Olancho finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Motagua
30%
Draws
31%
Olancho
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Motagua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Motagua carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Motagua's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Motagua Clean Sheet 20%
Olancho Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motagua Olancho
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 11
Draws 8 12
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.81 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Motagua
0:2
May 10, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olancho
1:2
Apr 24, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Motagua
0:0
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olancho
1:1
Nov 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olancho
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer John Kleber
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Olancho Compare

Top Goalscorer Zuniga Bernardez C. J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motagua 85 / 100
Olancho 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motagua Olancho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motagua's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Olancho's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Motagua went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Motagua VS Olancho
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Motagua

(Home)
13 Aug
Motagua
1 : 1
Cartagines
09 Aug
Motagua
0 : 2
Estrella
07 Aug
Motagua
1 : 0
FAS
02 Aug
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Motagua
29 Jul
Verdes
0 : 5
Motagua
Page 1 of 7

Olancho

(Away)
08 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 1
Olancho
02 Aug
Estrella
0 : 1
Olancho
15 May
Genesis FC
1 : 1
Olancho
13 May
Olancho
0 : 2
Motagua
10 May
Motagua
1 : 2
Olancho
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)