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Motherwell vs Falkirk

Scotland Scotland

Premiership 2025/2026 Fir Park, Motherwell
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Stewart B.
Assist: Miller C.
25'
Sparrow T.
34' Event
Watt E.

AI Match Summary

Falkirk in this Premiership 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Falkirk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Motherwell
6%
Draws
90%
Falkirk
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Falkirk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Falkirk lately — more wins on the board than Motherwell.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Falkirk taking it.
  • Regular Premiership 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Falkirk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Motherwell Clean Sheet 15%
Falkirk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motherwell Falkirk
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 7 2
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premiership
Falkirk vs Motherwell
1:0
Apr 4, 2026 Premiership
Motherwell vs Falkirk
2:3
Dec 3, 2025 Premiership
Falkirk vs Motherwell
0:0
Oct 18, 2025 Premiership
Motherwell vs Falkirk
1:2
Apr 3, 2010 Premiership
Motherwell vs Falkirk
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motherwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Watt E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maswanhise T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Falkirk Compare

Top Goalscorer Stewart B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Broggio B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motherwell 10 / 100
Falkirk 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motherwell Falkirk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motherwell's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Falkirk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Motherwell has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Motherwell VS Falkirk
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Motherwell

(Home)
17 Jul
Motherwell
3 : 4
Genk
05 Jul
Aarhus
4 : 0
Motherwell
16 May
Hibernian
0 : 1
Motherwell
13 May
Motherwell
2 : 3
Celtic
09 May
Motherwell
1 : 1
Hearts
Page 1 of 6

Falkirk

(Away)
18 Jul
Falkirk
1 : 0
Genk
14 Jul
Falkirk
0 : 1
Ayr
11 Jul
Edinburgh City
0 : 5
Falkirk
07 Jul
Airdrieonians
1 : 2
Falkirk
16 May
Falkirk
2 : 5
Rangers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hearts33217558:2870
2Rangers331912266:3169
3Celtic33214859:3567
4Motherwell331412752:2954
5Hibernian331312851:3751
6Falkirk331371345:4846
7Dundee Utd339131145:5440
8Aberdeen33961833:4833
9Dundee FC33891634:5333
10St. Mirren33791727:4830
11Kilmarnock336101737:6528
12Livingston331131935:6616
Promotion - Premiership 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premiership 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)