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Moura AC vs Louletano

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Ferreira L.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Moura AC and Louletano finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Louletano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Moura AC
15%
Draws
59%
Louletano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Moura AC haven't matched Louletano's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Louletano here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Moura AC Clean Sheet 13%
Louletano Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moura AC Louletano
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 9 23
Draws 5 10
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 1.07 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.93 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moura AC vs Louletano
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Moura AC
4:0
Mar 7, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H
Moura AC vs Louletano
1:2
Dec 6, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H
Louletano vs Moura AC
1:0
Feb 17, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moura AC vs Louletano
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moura AC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Louletano Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.53
Avg xA / game 0.93

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moura AC 31 / 100
Louletano 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moura AC Louletano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moura AC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Louletano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 49% of 39 matches.

Solid form: Moura AC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Louletano
0 Goals Scored 2.25
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Moura AC

(Home)
13 Apr
Moura AC
1 : 2
Amora
06 Apr
Lagoa
0 : 1
Moura AC
29 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 1
Estrela da Amadora B
16 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 2
Sintrense
09 Mar
Moura AC
0 : 1
Louletano
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Louletano

(Away)
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
15 Aug
Louletano
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)