Sport Picks
Mtibwa Sugar vs Azam
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Jamhuri Stadium, Dodoma 
Match Events
9'
9'
Salum F.
20'
20'
Kitambala J.
31'
31'
Sub
Fuentes Mendoza Y. D. In: Lawi L.
Out: Fuentes Mendoza Y. D.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Mtibwa Sugar and Azam finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Azam.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Azam
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Mtibwa Sugar haven't matched Azam's recent run of results.
- 85% — that's where the model lands on Azam taking it.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Azam have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Azam Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mtibwa Sugar | Azam |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 6 | 21 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 1.64 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 0.55 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.57 | 2.08 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Azam
0:3
Feb 25, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Mtibwa Sugar
3:0
May 6, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Azam
0:2
Apr 7, 2024 Federation Cup
Azam vs Mtibwa Sugar
3:0
Nov 24, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Mtibwa Sugar
5:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Avg xG / game 0.44
Avg xA / game 0.28
Azam Compare
Top Goalscorer Salum F.
2 Goals Assists Leader Kitambala J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.89
Avg xA / game 1.16
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100
Azam 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mtibwa Sugar Azam
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Azam Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Mtibwa Sugar scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.
Azam let in goals in 30% of their last 33 matches.
Scoring Trends
Mtibwa Sugar VS Azam
0.4 Goals Scored 1.75
2.4 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 88%
80% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Mtibwa Sugar
(Home) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 6
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
24 May
Mtibwa Sugar
2 : 2 JKT Tanzania
14 May
Mtibwa Sugar
4 : 3 Kinondoni MC
06 May
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 1 Dodoma Jiji
02 May
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Azam
Page 1 of 3
Azam
(Away) 07 Sept
Azam
2 : 0 Namungo
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2 Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2 Azam
23 Aug
Azam
2 : 1 Pamba
20 Aug
Azam
2 : 1 TRA United
Page 1 of 7
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2 Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2 Azam
15 Aug
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 1 Azam
04 Jul
Simba
1 : 0 Azam
27 Jun
Coastal Union
0 : 2 Azam
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
