Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Manungu Stadium

Mashujaa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mtibwa Sugar play Mashujaa in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mtibwa Sugar averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Mashujaa averaged 0.48 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Mtibwa Sugar won 1, Mashujaa won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 13, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Mtibwa Sugar and 1.38 for Mashujaa. This points to a Mashujaa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

Mtibwa Sugar

23%

Draws

45%

Mashujaa

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Mashujaa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Mtibwa Sugar picked up more points recently compared to Mashujaa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 55%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 17%

Mashujaa Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 50%

Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mtibwa Sugar	Mashujaa
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	6	8
Draws	9	11
Losses	15	12
Goals Scored	0.83	0.48
Goals Conceded	1.6	0.87
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Mashujaa

Possession: 49% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

1:3

Sep 21, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mashujaa vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 0 - 4

1:0

May 25, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mashujaa vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 46% - 47% Cards: 4 - 2

3:2

Dec 19, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Mashujaa

Possession: 58% - 50% Cards: 1 - 4

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Mashujaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Haji H.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Kibaya J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.23

Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mtibwa Sugar 32 / 100

Mashujaa 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mtibwa Sugar Mashujaa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mashujaa or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +20.8%

3.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mtibwa Sugar attacking → ← attacking Mashujaa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtibwa Sugar scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Mashujaa let in goals in 52% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Mtibwa Sugar went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Mashujaa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 35

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.25

2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9