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Muang Thong Utd vs Lamphun Warrior

Thailand Thailand

Thai FA Cup Thunderdome Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Muang Thong Utd play Lamphun Warrior in the Thai FA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Muang Thong Utd averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. Lamphun Warrior averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, Muang Thong Utd won 2, Lamphun Warrior won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 15, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Muang Thong Utd and 0.94 for Lamphun Warrior. This points to a Lamphun Warrior double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Muang Thong Utd
35%
Draws
37%
Lamphun Warrior
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lamphun Warrior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Muang Thong Utd picked up more points recently compared to Lamphun Warrior.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Muang Thong Utd Clean Sheet 24%
Lamphun Warrior Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Muang Thong Utd Lamphun Warrior
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 6 8
Draws 7 16
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 1.16 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Thai League 1
Muang Thong Utd vs Lamphun Warrior
1:1
Dec 20, 2025 Thai FA Cup
Muang Thong Utd vs Lamphun Warrior
0:1
Oct 3, 2025 Thai League 1
Lamphun Warrior vs Muang Thong Utd
2:2
Jan 11, 2025 Thai League 1
Lamphun Warrior vs Muang Thong Utd
1:5
Aug 18, 2024 Thai League 1
Muang Thong Utd vs Lamphun Warrior
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Muang Thong Utd Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lamphun Warrior Compare

Top Goalscorer Willen Mota
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Muang Thong Utd 30 / 100
Lamphun Warrior 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Muang Thong Utd Lamphun Warrior

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lamphun Warrior or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Muang Thong Utd attacking → ← attacking Lamphun Warrior

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Muang Thong Utd scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Lamphun Warrior let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Muang Thong Utd went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Lamphun Warrior lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 40
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13