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Muhanga vs Bugesera

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2025/2026
Muhanga Logo

Muhanga

1 - 0
FT
Bugesera Logo

Bugesera

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Muhanga and Bugesera finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Muhanga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Muhanga
20%
Draws
29%
Bugesera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Muhanga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bugesera come out ahead of Muhanga on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Muhanga's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Muhanga Clean Sheet 68%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Muhanga Bugesera
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 4
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 0.8 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Muhanga vs Bugesera
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Muhanga
0:1
May 20, 2021 Premier League
Bugesera vs Muhanga
4:0
May 17, 2021 Premier League
Muhanga vs Bugesera
0:2
Dec 27, 2020 Premier League
Muhanga vs Bugesera
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Muhanga 59 / 100
Bugesera 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Muhanga Bugesera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Muhanga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bugesera conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Muhanga remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Bugesera's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Muhanga VS Bugesera
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Muhanga

(Home)
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
22 May
Amagaju
0 : 2
Muhanga
16 May
Kiyovu
1 : 1
Muhanga
10 May
Muhanga
0 : 2
Al-Hilal Omdurman
06 May
Muhanga
1 : 0
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

Bugesera

(Away)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 74:25 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 50:28 68
3 Al-Merreikh 34 16 11 7 41:24 59
4 Rayon Sport 34 14 14 6 40:30 56
5 Kiyovu 34 13 14 7 34:21 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 29:19 52
7 Mukura Victory Sports 34 12 11 11 36:38 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 47:43 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 38:37 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 31:42 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38:54 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 32:40 37
14 Kigali FC 34 8 11 15 27:39 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 29:44 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 19:38 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 25:46 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 30:47 29
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)