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Muranga vs Mahia

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Kappen S.
36' Event
Waithira J.
51' Event
Musa S.

AI Match Summary

Mahia in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Muranga
15%
Draws
21%
Mahia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Muranga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Mahia have won more games recently than Muranga.
  • Win probability leans Muranga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Muranga Clean Sheet 20%
Mahia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Muranga Mahia
Matches Played 25 26
Wins 11 14
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.32 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.36 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.67 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Premier League
Mahia vs Muranga
0:0
May 17, 2026 Premier League
Muranga vs Mahia
1:3
Jan 14, 2026 Premier League
Mahia vs Muranga
3:2
May 25, 2025 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Mahia vs Muranga
3:2
May 18, 2025 Premier League
Muranga vs Mahia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Muranga Compare

Top Goalscorer Waithira J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.34

Mahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Kappen S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Musa S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Muranga 85 / 100
Mahia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Muranga Mahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Muranga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Muranga scored in 80% of their last 25 outings.

Mahia let in goals in 65% of their last 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Muranga remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Muranga VS Mahia
0.33 Goals Scored 1.25
0.17 Goals Conceded 1
17% Over 1.5 50%
17% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Muranga

(Home)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2
Muranga
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1
Muranga
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Mahia

(Away)
13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1
Mahia
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2
Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)