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Murense vs Portmany

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Murense play Portmany in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022. Portmany are favorites here. Recently, Murense averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. Portmany averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, Murense won 0, Portmany won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 27, 2022 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Murense and 0.93 for Portmany. This points to a Portmany double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Murense
18%
Draws
65%
Portmany
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Portmany

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence
  • Murense picked up more points recently compared to Portmany.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Murense Clean Sheet 24%
Portmany Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Murense Portmany
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 2 8
Draws 5 6
Losses 23 17
Goals Scored 0.7 0.77
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.32

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Murense vs Portmany
0:1
Oct 24, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Portmany vs Murense
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Murense 20 / 100
Portmany 61 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Murense Portmany

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portmany Win (2)
Secondary Pick Portmany & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +88.9%
11.11
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Murense attacking → ← attacking Portmany

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Murense scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Portmany let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Murense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Portmany lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 30
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mallorca B403253105:27101
2Manacor402641074:4282
3UD Poblense40248889:2480
4Platges de Calvia402211756:2777
5Llosetense40229962:3675
6Santanyi402361166:4675
7Constancia402091154:3869
8PE Sant Jordi402081257:4668
9Portmany4017111255:5162
10Collerense401771645:4958
11Soller401691546:5257
12Binissalem4013121540:4451
13Mercadal4011121754:5145
14Inter Ibiza401272151:6243
15Rotlet Molinar401192035:5342
16El Espinar Sant Rafel4010102048:6440
17Campos4010102038:6440
18Felanitx409112043:6538
19Serverense40872535:7431
20Murense40582731:7623
21Son Veri40433328:12115