Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacao vs Caravaggio

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Nacao Logo

Nacao

2 - 2
FT
Caravaggio Logo

Caravaggio

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Kaio Almeida Batista H.
66' Event
Gustavo Modesto
69' Event
Joao Castro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Nacao and Caravaggio finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Nacao
11%
Draws
80%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacao haven't matched Caravaggio's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Caravaggio's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Nacao Clean Sheet 10%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Caravaggio
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 4 14
Draws 13 5
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.63 2.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Caravaggio
2:2
May 27, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
4:1
Aug 5, 2023 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Caravaggio
1:0
Jul 30, 2023 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
1:0
Jul 16, 2023 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Nacao
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiago
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Almeida Batista H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Castro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 10 / 100
Caravaggio 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Caravaggio has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Nacao has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Nacao found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Caravaggio
0.63 Goals Scored 2.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacao

(Home)
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 2
Nacao
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
05 Jul
Tubarao
1 : 0
Nacao
01 Jul
Nacao
0 : 0
CA Metropolitano
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Caravaggio

(Away)
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
05 Jul
CA Metropolitano
2 : 1
Caravaggio
28 Jun
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Guarani de Palhoca
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz18133235:1042
2CA Metropolitano18122436:1838
3Caravaggio18105347:2035
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1865723:2123
6Guarani de Palhoca1865724:2423
7Nacao1856719:2621
8Fluminense-SC1863916:2521
9Gremio Juventus18521117:2617
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)