Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacao vs Joinville

Brazil Brazil

Copa Santa Catarina
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. This leg finished 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nacao
15%
Draws
51%
Joinville
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Joinville

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Joinville have won more games recently than Nacao.
  • Win probability leans Joinville's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Joinville arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Joinville, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Nacao Clean Sheet 20%
Joinville Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Joinville
Matches Played 26 32
Wins 5 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 0.88 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Joinville
0:4
Oct 7, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Joinville
0:1
Sep 14, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Nacao
0:0
Sep 14, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Joinville
3:3
Mar 2, 2024 Catarinense
Nacao vs Joinville
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 28 / 100
Joinville 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Joinville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Joinville Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacao found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (26 games).

Joinville's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Joinville has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Joinville
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.67
50% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacao

(Home)
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Nacao
Page 1 of 6

Joinville

(Away)
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Joinville
07 Jun
Sao Luiz
3 : 1
Joinville
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 4 3 0 1 14:8 9
2 Figueirense 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
3 Santa Catarina 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
4 Hercilio Luz 3 2 0 1 9:7 6
5 Joinville 4 2 0 2 8:7 6
6 CA Metropolitano 3 1 0 2 5:9 3
7 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 3 0 3 0 6:6 3
8 Nacao 4 0 2 2 5:10 2
9 Blumenau 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)