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Nacao vs Santa Catarina Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Copa Santa Catarina
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Match Events

8' Event
Elyson
28' Event
Gui Nascimento
49' Event
Gui Nascimento

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Nacao
30%
Draws
54%
Santa Catarina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santa Catarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Catarina come out ahead of Nacao on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nacao's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Santa Catarina arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Nacao Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Catarina Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Santa Catarina
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 10 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.96 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.07 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Santa Catarina
2:2
Jun 11, 2023 Catarinense 2
Santa Catarina vs Nacao
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Elyson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bicca M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.54

Santa Catarina Compare

Top Goalscorer Gui Nascimento
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 50 / 100
Santa Catarina 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Santa Catarina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacao's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Santa Catarina let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Nacao remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Santa Catarina
1 Goals Scored 1.29
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.14
50% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacao

(Home)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
23 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
3 : 3
Nacao
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Figueirense
1 : 0
Nacao
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
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Santa Catarina

(Away)
20 Sept
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
Figueirense
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 5 3 1 1 15:9 10
2 Figueirense 4 3 1 0 5:2 10
3 Hercilio Luz 4 3 0 1 11:8 9
4 Joinville 5 3 0 2 10:8 9
5 Santa Catarina 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
6 CA Metropolitano 4 1 0 3 5:10 3
7 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 4 0 3 1 7:8 3
8 Blumenau 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
9 Nacao 5 0 2 3 6:12 2
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)