Sport Picks
Match Events
90'
90'
Pinheiro Bezerra F.
AI Match Summary
Nacional-AM (Manaus) in this Serie D tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Capital
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nacional-AM (Manaus) lately — more wins on the board than Capital.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Capital taking it.
- Nacional-AM (Manaus) have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional-AM (Manaus), who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Clean Sheet 23%
Capital Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional-AM (Manaus) | Capital |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 12, 2026 Serie D
Capital vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1:1
Jul 4, 2026 Serie D
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Capital
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Compare
Top Goalscorer Pinheiro Bezerra F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Capital Compare
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 29 / 100
Capital 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Capital
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Nacional-AM (Manaus) stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Nacional-AM (Manaus) scored in 62% of their last 29 games.
Capital has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Nacional-AM (Manaus) VS Capital
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
(Home) 18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1 Iguatu
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1 Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0 Capital
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0 Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1 Nacional-AM (Manaus)
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1 Iguatu
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0 Capital
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0 Araguaina
14 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
3 : 1 Monte Roraima
29 May
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
2 : 4 Paysandu PA
Page 1 of 4
Capital
(Away) 12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1 Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0 Capital
27 Jun
Capital
4 : 0 Aparecidense
20 Jun
Aparecidense
1 : 1 Capital
07 Jun
Capital
2 : 0 Uniao Rondonopolis
Page 1 of 6
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0 Capital
20 Jun
Aparecidense
1 : 1 Capital
30 May
Operario VG
1 : 5 Capital
23 May
Goiatuba EC
1 : 1 Capital
02 May
Mixto
1 : 1 Capital
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Independencia Futebol Clube1
Manauara3
Brasiliense0
Goiatuba EC1
Imperatriz2
Maracana1
Central SC1
Ferroviario3
Fluminense-PI0
America RN4
Sampaio Correa2
Trem3
Sao Raimundo RR2
Porto Velho3
Mixto1
Gama3
Monte Roraima3
Guapore4
Ceilandia2
Luverdense3
Parnahyba2
Aguia De Maraba3
AE Altos1
ABC2
Araguaina0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Aparecidense1
Capital5
Tuna Luso2
Iguatu3
Maguary2
Piaui1
Portuguesa RJ4
Noroeste2
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Santa Catarina2
Jacuipense1
Treze PB3
CRAC1
Tombense0
Serra Branca3
Juazeirense0
Rio Branco ES2
Uberlandia4
Sampaio Correa FE1
Portuguesa2
FC Cascavel3
Marcilio Dias4
Sao Luiz3
Blumenau2
Velo Clube2
Agua Santa1
Lagarto1
CSA3
Vitoria ES1
Betim FC2
America RJ1
Piracicaba3
Sao Joseense1
Cianorte2
ASA2
Sergipe1
Ivinhema4
Democrata GV2
1/16-finals
Manauara2
Goiatuba EC3
Imperatriz1
Ferroviario4
America RN6
Trem2
Porto Velho2
Gama3
Guapore0
Luverdense1
Aguia De Maraba2
ABC4
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Capital1
Iguatu5
Maguary3
Portuguesa RJ0
EC Sao Jose (PA)1
Treze PB3
CRAC2
Serra Branca2
Uberlandia3
Portuguesa3
Marcilio Dias1
Sao Luiz4
Velo Clube3
CSA4
Betim FC1
Piracicaba0
Cianorte4
ASA6
Ivinhema1
1/8-finals
Goiatuba EC3
Ferroviario0
America RN1
Gama0
Luverdense0
ABC0
Nacional-AM (Manaus)1
Iguatu1
EC Sao Jose (PA)2
Treze PB1
Uberlandia2
Portuguesa0
Sao Luiz0
CSA0
Cianorte0
ASA1
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
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TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-