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Stadium Background

Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Manaus FC

Brazil Brazil

Amazonense
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacional-AM (Manaus) play Manaus FC in the Amazonense. Nacional-AM (Manaus) are favorites here. Recently, Nacional-AM (Manaus) averaged 1.66 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Manaus FC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Nacional-AM (Manaus) won 3, Manaus FC won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 31, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Nacional-AM (Manaus) and 1.00 for Manaus FC. This points to a Nacional-AM (Manaus) double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
25%
Draws
15%
Manaus FC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Nacional-AM (Manaus)

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) picked up more points recently compared to Manaus FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Clean Sheet 23%
Manaus FC Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional-AM (Manaus) Manaus FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.66 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Serie D
Manaus FC vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Serie D
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Manaus FC
2:0
Feb 20, 2026 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Manaus FC
0:1
Mar 29, 2025 Amazonense
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Manaus FC
2:0
Jan 25, 2025 Amazonense
Manaus FC vs Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional-AM (Manaus) Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Manaus FC Compare

Top Goalscorer David Luis
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional-AM (Manaus) 59 / 100
Manaus FC 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Manaus FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional-AM (Manaus) Win (1)
Secondary Pick Nacional-AM (Manaus) & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nacional-AM (Manaus) attacking → ← attacking Manaus FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional-AM (Manaus) scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Manaus FC let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Nacional-AM (Manaus) went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Manaus FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 43
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.86
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.43

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Manauara32105:37
2Parintins31112:24
3Amazonas30300:03
4Itacoatiara30122:41
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Manaus FC33006:19
2Nacional-AM (Manaus)31115:34
3Princesa do Solimoes31115:54
4Sao Raimundo AM30031:80