Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Porto Velho

Brazil Brazil

Copa Norte Arena da Amazonia, Manaus
Thu, May 7, 2026
2 - 1
12:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Custodio M.
Own Goal
67' Event
Erick Varao
1' Event
Gabriel Davis
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Nacional-AM (Manaus) in this Copa Norte tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
6%
Draws
90%
Porto Velho
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Porto Velho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) have won more games recently than Porto Velho.
  • Model gives Porto Velho a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Nacional-AM (Manaus) have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional-AM (Manaus), who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Clean Sheet 20%
Porto Velho Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional-AM (Manaus) Porto Velho
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 16
Draws 7 6
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1 3.13
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Norte
Nacional-AM (Manaus) vs Porto Velho
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional-AM (Manaus) Compare

Top Goalscorer Erick Varao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Porto Velho Compare

Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional-AM (Manaus) 10 / 100
Porto Velho 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional-AM (Manaus) Porto Velho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Nacional-AM (Manaus) remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Nacional-AM (Manaus)'s goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Porto Velho's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Nacional-AM (Manaus) VS Porto Velho
1 Goals Scored 3.13
1 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional-AM (Manaus)

(Home)
18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1
Iguatu
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0
Capital
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
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Porto Velho

(Away)
12 Jul
Gama
3 : 0
Porto Velho
04 Jul
Porto Velho
2 : 0
Gama
28 Jun
Porto Velho
2 : 1
Sao Raimundo RR
21 Jun
Sao Raimundo RR
1 : 1
Porto Velho
14 Jun
Porto Velho
13 : 0
SC Humaita
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Porto Velho1
Aguia De Maraba1
Paysandu PA5
Final
Nacional-AM (Manaus)2
Paysandu PA5