Sport Picks
Nacional Asuncion vs Recoleta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 3-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Little to choose between these two on current form. Nacional Asuncion have averaged 1.38 scored and 0.86 conceded recently, against Recoleta's 1.44 scored and 1.74 conceded. Past meetings favor Recoleta slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 3, 2026, ending 3:2. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 0.88, favoring Nacional Asuncion. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Form's been kind to Nacional Asuncion lately — more wins on the board than Recoleta.
- Model gives Nacional Asuncion a 47% chance of winning this.
- Nacional Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Recoleta, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 34 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 11 | 7 |
| Losses | 5 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Nacional Asuncion scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Recoleta conceded in 82% of 34 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Nacional Asuncion stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional Asuncion
(Home)Recoleta
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 26 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16:13 | 25 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20:8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:15 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14:24 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 11 | Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:26 | 8 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 4:22 | 3 |
