Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno Prediction & H2H Stats

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción
Nacional Asuncion Logo

Nacional Asuncion

3 - 2
FT
Sp. Luqueno Logo

Sp. Luqueno

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Valdez I.
28' Event
Maggi I.
Assist: Ruiz O.
42' Event
Quintana S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Nacional Asuncion
15%
Draws
39%
Sp. Luqueno
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nacional Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nacional Asuncion come out ahead of Sp. Luqueno on wins alone.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Nacional Asuncion taking it.
  • Nacional Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
Sp. Luqueno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Asuncion Sp. Luqueno
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 10 5
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
2:0
Mar 27, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
3:2
Jan 27, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
1:2
Oct 12, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
1:1
Jul 29, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Santacruz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Valdez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Sp. Luqueno Compare

Top Goalscorer Maggi I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quintana S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional Asuncion 77 / 100
Sp. Luqueno 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Asuncion Sp. Luqueno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional Asuncion Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional Asuncion's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Sp. Luqueno's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nacional Asuncion remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional Asuncion VS Sp. Luqueno
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional Asuncion

(Home)
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2
Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0
2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0
Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

Sp. Luqueno

(Away)
01 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
25 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 1
Guarani
20 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 0
Recoleta
13 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 0
Sp. Luqueno
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2
Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 22 15 4 3 37:17 49
2 Nacional Asuncion 22 10 9 3 31:22 39
3 Cerro Porteno 22 11 5 6 30:22 38
4 Sportivo Ameliano 22 8 9 5 27:21 33
5 Sportivo Trinidense 22 8 8 6 30:24 32
6 Libertad Asuncion 22 9 4 9 34:26 31
7 Guarani 22 7 8 7 27:23 29
8 Recoleta 22 8 4 10 35:32 28
9 Rubio Nu 22 6 5 11 15:26 23
10 2 de Mayo 22 5 7 10 18:35 22
11 Sp. Luqueno 22 5 5 12 24:33 20
12 San Lorenzo 22 3 6 13 14:41 15
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)