Sport Picks
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción 
Match Events
12'
12'
Melgarejo R.
Assist: Colman Escobar D. J.
45'
45'
Melgarejo R.
52'
52'
Ortiz L.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Sportivo Ameliano haven't matched Nacional Asuncion's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Nacional Asuncion's way, sitting at 60%.
- Nacional Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo Ameliano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 9 |
| Draws | 11 | 13 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 25, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:1
Jul 25, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1
Apr 20, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1
Feb 19, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:1
Nov 20, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Top Goalscorer Melgarejo R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Sportivo Ameliano Compare
Top Goalscorer Peralta R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nacional Asuncion 68 / 100
Sportivo Ameliano 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nacional Asuncion Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nacional Asuncion scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Nacional Asuncion stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nacional Asuncion VS Sportivo Ameliano
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional Asuncion
(Home) 06 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
02 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
24 Aug
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 0 Sp. Luqueno
09 Aug
Nacional Asuncion
0 : 0 Guarani
Page 1 of 3
Sportivo Ameliano
(Away) 06 Oct
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Rubio Nu
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
30 Aug
Guarani
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
16 Aug
Olimpia Asuncion
2 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 26 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16:13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Nacional Asuncion | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20:8 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18:14 | 20 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:15 | 18 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14:27 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 11 | Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:26 | 8 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5:23 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
