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Nacional PR vs Araucaria Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2
Nacional PR Logo

Nacional PR

1 - 1
FT
Araucaria Logo

Araucaria

Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Kassio J.
90' Event
Rodrigues L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Nacional PR
20%
Draws
51%
Araucaria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Araucaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Araucaria lately — more wins on the board than Nacional PR.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Araucaria taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 17%
Araucaria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional PR Araucaria
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 11 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.23 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Araucaria
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Kassio J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Araucaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional PR 23 / 100
Araucaria 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional PR Araucaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araucaria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional PR found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Araucaria let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Nacional PR remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional PR VS Araucaria
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional PR

(Home)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
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Araucaria

(Away)
23 May
Parana
2 : 1
Araucaria
17 May
Araucaria
0 : 2
Parana
11 May
Araucaria
1 : 0
Rio Branco PR
03 May
Rio Branco PR
2 : 5
Araucaria
25 Apr
Batel
0 : 1
Araucaria
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)