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Nacional PR vs Paranavai-PR - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Vera M.
67' Event
Victor Hugo
85' Event
Victor Hugo

AI Match Summary

Paranavai-PR in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paranavai-PR.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Nacional PR
35%
Draws
40%
Paranavai-PR
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paranavai-PR

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional PR haven't matched Paranavai-PR's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Paranavai-PR taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Paranavai-PR here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 23%
Paranavai-PR Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional PR Paranavai-PR
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 11 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.23 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Paranavai-PR
1:4
May 24, 2025 Paranaense 2
Paranavai-PR vs Nacional PR
3:0
Jun 2, 2024 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Paranavai-PR
0:1
Apr 7, 2013 Paranaense
Paranavai-PR vs Nacional PR
2:0
Feb 13, 2013 Paranaense
Nacional PR vs Paranavai-PR
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Paes D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Paranavai-PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor Hugo
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vera M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional PR 24 / 100
Paranavai-PR 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional PR Paranavai-PR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paranavai-PR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Nacional PR found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Paranavai-PR conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Nacional PR went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional PR VS Paranavai-PR
0.4 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1
20% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional PR

(Home)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
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Paranavai-PR

(Away)
27 Sept
Parana
3 : 0
Paranavai-PR
20 Sept
Paranavai-PR
1 : 1
FC Cascavel
13 Sept
Paranavai-PR
1 : 0
Sao Joseense
07 Sept
Athletico-PR B
0 : 3
Paranavai-PR
02 Sept
Londrina B
0 : 0
Paranavai-PR
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)