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Nacional SP vs Colorado Caieiras

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Marllon
29' Event
Lobato G.
53' Event
Marllon

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Nacional SP and Colorado Caieiras finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nacional SP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Nacional SP
30%
Draws
16%
Colorado Caieiras
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacional SP carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Nacional SP's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%
Colorado Caieiras Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP Colorado Caieiras
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 8 7
Draws 8 14
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.83 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Colorado Caieiras
4:1
Feb 8, 2025 Paulista A4
Colorado Caieiras vs Nacional SP
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Marllon
2 Goals
Assists Leader Davi Menino
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Colorado Caieiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Lobato G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP 95 / 100
Colorado Caieiras 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP Colorado Caieiras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional SP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Colorado Caieiras has conceded goals in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Nacional SP has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Colorado Caieiras registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional SP VS Colorado Caieiras
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional SP

(Home)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 6

Colorado Caieiras

(Away)
04 Apr
Colorado Caieiras
0 : 0
Penapolense
28 Mar
Tanabi
0 : 0
Colorado Caieiras
25 Mar
Colorado Caieiras
0 : 4
Sao Caetano
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
Colorado Caieiras
0 : 2
ECUS SP
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)