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Nacional SP vs Colorado Caieiras

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Marllon
29' Event
Lobato G.
53' Event
Marllon

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Nacional SP and Colorado Caieiras finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nacional SP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Nacional SP
6%
Draws
4%
Colorado Caieiras
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacional SP carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Nacional SP's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%
Colorado Caieiras Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP Colorado Caieiras
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 8 13
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Colorado Caieiras
4:1
Feb 8, 2025 Paulista A4
Colorado Caieiras vs Nacional SP
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Marllon
2 Goals
Assists Leader Davi Menino
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Colorado Caieiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Lobato G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP 95 / 100
Colorado Caieiras 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP Colorado Caieiras

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Colorado Caieiras has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Nacional SP has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Colorado Caieiras registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional SP VS Colorado Caieiras
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inter de Bebedouro15103221:633
2Sao Caetano1592423:1429
3Penapolense1585222:1029
4Sao-Carlense1575320:1326
5Barretos EC1575312:1026
6Taquaritinga1573520:1324
7Jacarei FC1565411:923
8Lemense1564514:1222
9ECUS SP1557311:622
10Comercial1562717:1620
11Tanabi1546512:1018
12Jabaquara1544714:1716
13Vocem1536612:1315
14Colorado Caieiras151776:2010
15Nacional SP1522117:228
16AEA Aracatuba1512126:375