Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional SP vs Jacarei FC

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Lanza T.

AI Match Summary

Jacarei FC in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jacarei FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nacional SP
33%
Draws
27%
Jacarei FC
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jacarei FC lately — more wins on the board than Nacional SP.
  • Win probability leans Nacional SP's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%
Jacarei FC Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP Jacarei FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 8 11
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Jacarei FC
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 Paulista A4
Jacarei FC vs Nacional SP
2:2
Feb 17, 2024 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Jacarei FC
1:0
Aug 12, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Jacarei FC
1:1
Aug 6, 2023 Paulista A4
Jacarei FC vs Nacional SP
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional SP Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Jacarei FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lanza T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP 50 / 100
Jacarei FC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP Jacarei FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Nacional SP went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nacional SP's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Jacarei FC let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional SP VS Jacarei FC
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional SP

(Home)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 6

Jacarei FC

(Away)
18 Apr
Sao Caetano
1 : 0
Jacarei FC
11 Apr
Jacarei FC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
04 Apr
Jacarei FC
0 : 0
ECUS SP
28 Mar
Vocem
0 : 1
Jacarei FC
25 Mar
Jacarei FC
0 : 1
Sao-Carlense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inter de Bebedouro15103221:633
2Sao Caetano1592423:1429
3Penapolense1585222:1029
4Sao-Carlense1575320:1326
5Barretos EC1575312:1026
6Taquaritinga1573520:1324
7Jacarei FC1565411:923
8Lemense1564514:1222
9ECUS SP1557311:622
10Comercial1562717:1620
11Tanabi1546512:1018
12Jabaquara1544714:1716
13Vocem1536612:1315
14Colorado Caieiras151776:2010
15Nacional SP1522117:228
16AEA Aracatuba1512126:375
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)