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Nacional SP vs XV de Jau

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2023
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AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 2023 game between Nacional SP and XV de Jau finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nacional SP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Nacional SP
20%
Draws
47%
XV de Jau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: XV de Jau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and XV de Jau come out ahead of Nacional SP on wins alone.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Paulista A4 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 17%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP XV de Jau
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.83 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2024 Paulista A4
XV de Jau vs Nacional SP
5:1
Aug 16, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs XV de Jau
2:1
Aug 2, 2023 Paulista A4
XV de Jau vs Nacional SP
2:0
Apr 8, 2009 Paulista A3
Nacional SP vs XV de Jau
1:2
Mar 11, 2007 Paulista A2
XV de Jau vs Nacional SP
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP 31 / 100
XV de Jau 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP XV de Jau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XV de Jau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Nacional SP remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Nacional SP found the back of the net in 40% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: XV de Jau conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional SP VS XV de Jau
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional SP

(Home)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
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XV de Jau

(Away)
18 Apr
Marilia
3 : 2
XV de Jau
12 Apr
XV de Jau
0 : 0
Marilia
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Sao Joao 6 2 4 0 5:3 10
2 Nacional SP 6 2 3 1 4:4 9
3 XV de Jau 6 2 1 3 5:5 7
4 Jacarei FC 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Catanduva FC 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Rio Branco SP 6 2 2 2 9:7 8
3 Penapolense 6 1 4 1 6:5 7
4 Jabaquara 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
Promotion - Paulista A4 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Barbarense 6 2 4 0 3:1 10
2 America SP 6 1 4 1 8:8 7
3 Sao-Carlense 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
4 Vocem 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
Promotion - Paulista A4 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Francana 6 4 1 1 10:6 13
2 Taquaritinga 6 4 0 2 9:6 12
3 SKA Brasil 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
4 Independente SP 6 0 0 6 3:11 0
Promotion - Paulista A4 2023 (Play Offs)