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Nacional vs Leixoes

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Club Friendly
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AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Nacional and Leixoes finished 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Nacional
35%
Draws
53%
Leixoes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Leixoes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacional haven't matched Leixoes's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Leixoes taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Nacional Clean Sheet 10%
Leixoes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Leixoes
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.25 2.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Nacional vs Leixoes
3:3
Feb 28, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Nacional
1:1
Aug 28, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Nacional vs Leixoes
3:1
Feb 19, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Nacional vs Leixoes
1:2
Aug 28, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Leixoes vs Nacional
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional 10 / 100
Leixoes 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Leixoes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Nacional scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Leixoes has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Nacional stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional VS Leixoes
1.25 Goals Scored 2.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional

(Home)
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Nacional
23 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0
Nacional
22 Jul
Nacional
0 : 0
Leganes
19 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1
Nacional
18 Jul
Nacional
3 : 3
Leixoes
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Leixoes

(Away)
01 Aug
Leixoes
6 : 2
Casa Pia
29 Jul
Leixoes
3 : 2
Vizela
18 Jul
Nacional
3 : 3
Leixoes
17 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 5
Leixoes
17 May
Leixoes
2 : 1
Lusitania FC
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