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Nacional vs Machico

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Nacional and Machico finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Machico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Nacional
44%
Draws
20%
Machico
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Machico come out ahead of Nacional on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Nacional Clean Sheet 20%
Machico Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Machico
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.75 1
Goals Conceded 1 0.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Nacional vs Machico
1:2
Jul 20, 2024 Club Friendly
Machico vs Nacional
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional 36 / 100
Machico 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Machico

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nacional scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Machico conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Nacional stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacional VS Machico
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.43
63% Over 1.5 43%
13% Over 2.5 29%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional

(Home)
23 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0
Nacional
22 Jul
Nacional
0 : 0
Leganes
19 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1
Nacional
18 Jul
Nacional
3 : 3
Leixoes
11 Jul
Nacional
1 : 2
Machico
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Machico

(Away)
11 Jul
Nacional
1 : 2
Machico
18 Apr
Machico
1 : 0
CD Ribeira Brava
12 Apr
Celoricense
0 : 0
Machico
08 Apr
Machico
1 : 0
Vilaverdense FC
22 Mar
Camacha
2 : 1
Machico
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