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Naft Gachsaran vs Saipa Prediction & H2H Stats

Iran Iran

Azadegan League 2025/2026
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Match Events

45' Event
Momeni S.
58' Event
Mirzaeian R.
75' Event
Ghelichkhani M.

AI Match Summary

The Azadegan League 2025/2026 game between Naft Gachsaran and Saipa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naft Gachsaran.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Naft Gachsaran
30%
Draws
58%
Saipa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Saipa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Naft Gachsaran haven't matched Saipa's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Saipa a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Azadegan League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Naft Gachsaran Clean Sheet 15%
Saipa Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Gachsaran Saipa
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 7 17
Draws 12 7
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 0.75 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.22 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Azadegan League
Naft Gachsaran vs Saipa
2:1
Oct 13, 2025 Azadegan League
Saipa vs Naft Gachsaran
0:0
Apr 22, 2025 Azadegan League
Naft Gachsaran vs Saipa
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Azadegan League
Saipa vs Naft Gachsaran
1:0
Jun 5, 2024 Azadegan League
Saipa vs Naft Gachsaran
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Gachsaran Compare

Top Goalscorer Momeni S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ghelichkhani M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Saipa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mirzaeian R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Gachsaran 10 / 100
Saipa 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Gachsaran Saipa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saipa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Naft Gachsaran has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Naft Gachsaran found the back of the net in 56% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Saipa conceded in 38% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Naft Gachsaran VS Saipa
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Naft Gachsaran

(Home)
28 Sept
Naft Bandar Abbas
0 : 0
Naft Gachsaran
22 Sept
Naft Gachsaran
0 : 1
Ario Eslamshahr
16 Sept
Besat Kermanshah
0 : 0
Naft Gachsaran
16 Jul
Naft Gachsaran
0 : 2
Mes Shahr Babak
11 Jul
Havadar SC
2 : 2
Naft Gachsaran
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Saipa

(Away)
28 Sept
Saipa
2 : 1
Niroye Zamini
22 Sept
Mes Kerman
0 : 1
Saipa
16 Sept
Saipa
2 : 0
Kara Gostar Shabestar
16 Jul
Saipa
1 : 0
Naft Bandar Abbas
11 Jul
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Saipa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 48:17 69
2 Mes Shahr Babak 34 19 11 4 41:14 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 37:21 60
4 Pars Janoobi Jam 34 16 12 6 44:22 60
5 Saipa 34 16 11 7 30:18 59
6 Havadar SC 34 11 17 6 32:23 50
7 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 26:19 47
8 Fard 34 10 16 8 24:15 46
9 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 23:18 45
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 19:18 43
11 Besat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 25:32 38
12 Kara Gostar Shabestar 34 9 10 15 17:34 37
13 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 28:31 36
14 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 23:36 35
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 25:41 35
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 18:29 30
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 16:48 24
18 Damash Gilan 34 2 13 19 16:56 19
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