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Nafta vs Maribor

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Športni park Lendava, Lendava
Sun, Aug 30, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nafta host Maribor in the Prva liga. Little to choose between these two on current form. Maribor have shipped 1.19 goals a game lately, while Nafta have conceded 1.18 and scored 1.71. Head-to-head, Nafta have won 1 to Maribor's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on May 25, 2025, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.69, favoring Nafta. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nafta
35%
Draws
37%
Maribor
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Maribor haven't matched Nafta's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Nafta Clean Sheet 13%
Maribor Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nafta Maribor
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 15 8
Draws 6 11
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.71 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2025 Prva liga
Maribor vs Nafta
0:1
Apr 16, 2025 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
1:1
Dec 8, 2024 Prva liga
Maribor vs Nafta
4:0
Sep 22, 2024 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
0:3
Jan 16, 2024 Club Friendly
Nafta vs Maribor
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nafta 35 / 100
Maribor 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nafta Maribor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nafta scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Maribor has conceded goals in 62% of their last 26 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nafta remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nafta VS Maribor
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nafta

(Home)
15 Aug
Nafta
1 : 3
Celje
09 Aug
Aluminij
1 : 1
Nafta
01 Aug
Nafta
5 : 2
Mura
26 Jul
Bravo
0 : 3
Nafta
17 Jul
Nafta
0 : 2
Koper
Page 1 of 6

Maribor

(Away)
15 Aug
O. Ljubljana
1 : 1
Maribor
09 Aug
Maribor
2 : 0
Koper
04 Aug
Varteks Varazdin (2011)
1 : 1
Maribor
01 Aug
Celje
1 : 1
Maribor
25 Jul
Maribor
3 : 0
Grosuplje
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 5 2 3 0 7:2 9
2 Celje 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
3 Bravo 5 2 2 1 5:5 8
4 Nafta 5 2 1 2 10:8 7
5 Mura 5 2 1 2 8:11 7
6 Koper 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
7 Aluminij 4 1 2 1 4:3 5
8 Grosuplje 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
9 Radomlje 5 1 1 3 7:10 4
10 O. Ljubljana 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)