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Nafta vs Maribor - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Športni park Lendava, Lendava
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Cipot T.
Assist: Tshipamba I.
13'
Sub
Goncalves C. In: Jevsenak Z.
Out: Goncalves C.
18' Event
Karnicnik Z.
Assist: Tshipamba I.

AI Match Summary

The Prva liga game between Nafta and Maribor finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maribor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nafta
30%
Draws
42%
Maribor
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Maribor haven't matched Nafta's recent run of results.
  • Maribor are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Nafta Clean Sheet 13%
Maribor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nafta Maribor
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 5 13
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.48 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
2:3
May 25, 2025 Prva liga
Maribor vs Nafta
0:1
Apr 16, 2025 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
1:1
Dec 8, 2024 Prva liga
Maribor vs Nafta
4:0
Sep 22, 2024 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nafta Compare

Top Goalscorer Poredos L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marosa A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Maribor Compare

Top Goalscorer Cipot T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Karnicnik Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nafta 27 / 100
Maribor 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nafta Maribor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nafta scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Maribor has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nafta remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nafta VS Maribor
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nafta

(Home)
19 Sept
Koper
2 : 0
Nafta
11 Sept
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Nafta
04 Sept
Nafta
3 : 1
Radomlje
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
21 Aug
O. Ljubljana
1 : 0
Nafta
Page 1 of 6

Maribor

(Away)
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)