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Nagoya Grampus vs Okayama Prediction & H2H Stats

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Nagoya Grampus Logo

Nagoya Grampus

Wed, Apr 29, 2026
1 - 2
06:00 AM
Okayama Logo

Okayama

Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Izumi R. In: Koda H.
Out: Izumi R.
46'
Sub
Browne N. In: Yamane T.
Out: Browne N.
46'
Sub
Werik Popo In: Meireles L. M.
Out: Werik Popo
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Okayama in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Okayama.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Nagoya Grampus
15%
Draws
68%
Okayama
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okayama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Okayama have won more games recently than Nagoya Grampus.
  • Okayama are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 11%
Okayama Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nagoya Grampus Okayama
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 1 2
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.55 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Okayama
2:1
Apr 29, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Okayama
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 J1 League
Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus
0:1
May 6, 2025 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Okayama
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nagoya Grampus Compare

Top Goalscorer Koda H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Okayama Compare

Top Goalscorer Tagami D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nagoya Grampus 14 / 100
Okayama 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nagoya Grampus Okayama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Okayama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nagoya Grampus's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Okayama's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nagoya Grampus remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nagoya Grampus VS Okayama
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nagoya Grampus

(Home)
29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3
Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6

Okayama

(Away)
29 Sept
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 2
Okayama
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
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