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Napier City vs Manurewa Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

68'
Muzakkir-Nabeel M.
68'
Muzakkir-Nabeel M.
70' Event
Bobadilla N.

AI Match Summary

Manurewa in this National League 2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manurewa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Napier City
20%
Draws
40%
Manurewa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Napier City lately — more wins on the board than Manurewa.
  • Napier City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Napier City Clean Sheet 18%
Manurewa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napier City Manurewa
Matches Played 29 13
Wins 10 5
Draws 5 1
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.93 1.46
Goals Conceded 2.14 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.46 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 22, 2023 National League
Napier City vs Manurewa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napier City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.89
Avg xA / game 1.23

Manurewa Compare

Top Goalscorer Bobadilla N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napier City 85 / 100
Manurewa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napier City Manurewa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Manurewa let in goals in 85% of their last 13 matches.

Napier City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Napier City VS Manurewa
2.25 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.67
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Napier City

(Home)
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
Page 1 of 6

Manurewa

(Away)
27 Jul
Wellington Olympic
4 : 0
Manurewa
06 Jul
Manurewa
3 : 2
Onehunga Mangere
01 Mar
Auckland City
2 : 0
Manurewa
18 Nov
Petone
1 : 2
Manurewa
12 Nov
Manurewa
0 : 0
Auckland United
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wellington Olympic 9 7 2 0 34:15 23
2 Auckland City 9 7 0 2 19:12 21
3 Christchurch 9 5 1 3 18:16 16
4 Eastern Suburbs 9 4 3 2 23:11 15
5 Manurewa 9 4 1 4 16:20 13
6 Cashmere Technical 9 4 1 4 24:24 13
7 Auckland United 9 2 4 3 15:17 10
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 9 3 0 6 19:24 9
9 Napier City 9 2 1 6 13:26 7
10 Petone 9 0 1 8 6:22 1
Promotion - National League 2023 (Grand Final)