Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Narva vs Kuressaare

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Narva Kalev-Fama staadion, Narva
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Kivi A.
Assist: Prunn S.
43' Event
Burjanadze S.
Assist: Poliakov D.
49'
Burjanadze S.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Narva and Kuressaare finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kuressaare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Narva
15%
Draws
39%
Kuressaare
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Narva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Kuressaare's 1.59 goals per match outpaces what Narva have produced (1.52).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Narva Clean Sheet 18%
Kuressaare Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Narva Kuressaare
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 3 5
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.52 1.59
Goals Conceded 2 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Narva
0:0
Apr 18, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Kuressaare
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Kuressaare vs Narva
2:2
Sep 20, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Narva
0:0
Jul 5, 2025 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Kuressaare
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Narva Compare

Top Goalscorer Burjanadze S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Kuressaare Compare

Top Goalscorer Kivi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vahermagi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Narva 32 / 100
Kuressaare 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Narva Kuressaare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Kuressaare conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Narva stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Narva scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Narva VS Kuressaare
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Narva

(Home)
11 Aug
Narva
8 : 0
Marjamaa Kompanii
08 Aug
Narva
0 : 2
Kalju
31 Jul
Nomme Utd
1 : 2
Narva
22 Jul
Narva
1 : 0
Flora Tallinn U21
18 Jul
Narva
3 : 1
Parnu JK Vaprus
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Kuressaare

(Away)
11 Aug
Kristiine
0 : 8
Kuressaare
07 Aug
Kuressaare
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
02 Aug
Paide Linnameeskond
1 : 0
Kuressaare
23 Jul
Kuressaare
5 : 1
Tartu JK Welco 2
19 Jul
Kuressaare
0 : 0
Kalju
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 21 15 5 1 55:17 50
2 Kalju 22 12 5 5 40:17 41
3 Flora 20 13 0 7 40:21 39
4 Paide Linnameeskond 21 10 5 6 33:28 35
5 Parnu JK Vaprus 21 8 3 10 29:39 27
6 Tammeka Tartu 19 8 2 9 22:31 26
7 Nomme Utd 22 8 1 13 40:53 25
8 Harju JK Laagri 22 8 1 13 32:38 25
9 Kuressaare 22 6 3 13 22:36 21
10 Narva 22 5 1 16 17:50 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)