Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
A one-off knockout match in the Estonian Cup 2012/2013. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Narva have averaged 1.31 scored and 1.88 conceded recently, against Saaremaa's 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded. Head-to-head, Narva have won 1 to Saaremaa's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 9, 2012, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.54 vs 1.31, favoring Saaremaa. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
20%
65%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Saaremaa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Narva carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Narva a 42% chance of winning this.
- Narva have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Narva, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Narva Clean Sheet 18%
Saaremaa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Narva | Saaremaa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 7 |
| Wins | 10 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 18 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 0.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.88 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.54 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2012 Estonian Cup
Narva vs Saaremaa
0:0
Jul 20, 2010 Estonian Cup
Narva vs Saaremaa
3:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Narva 41 / 100
Saaremaa 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Narva Saaremaa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Saaremaa conceded in 80% of 5 recent games.
Games between these two average 1.50 goals.
Narva's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Recent resilience: Narva stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Narva VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Narva
(Home) 20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1 Levadia
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0 Narva
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2 Flora
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1 Narva
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2 Tammeka Tartu
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1 Levadia
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2 Flora
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2 Tammeka Tartu
26 Aug
Narva
2 : 0 Kalju
16 Aug
Narva
1 : 1 Paide Linnameeskond
Page 1 of 4
Saaremaa
(Away) 09 Sept
Narva
: Saaremaa
22 Jul
Kadakas
1 : 2 Saaremaa
09 Oct
Saaremaa
1 : 4 Parnu Linnameeskond
07 Sept
Leisi
0 : 1 Saaremaa
03 Aug
Saaremaa
: Saku Sporting
Page 1 of 2
09 Sept
Narva
: Saaremaa
22 Jul
Kadakas
1 : 2 Saaremaa
07 Sept
Leisi
0 : 1 Saaremaa
20 Jul
Narva
3 : 0 Saaremaa
29 Jul
SK EPMU Tartu
3 : 2 Saaremaa
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Kalju 17
Eestimaa Kasakad 0
Tallinna Kalev 12
FC KIIU 3
Otepaa 2
Ulikool Tallinn 1
Tartu SK 10 II -
Leisi -
Pirita 0
Rapla 8
Saku Sporting 3
FC Balteco 1
Pokkeriprod 3
Soccernet 2
Levadia 12
Toompea 1994 0
Ajax Lasnamae II 2
Velldoris 5
Kalju III 2
Akhtamar 1
Paide Linnameeskond U21 -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Lootos Polva -
Kose 3
Kaitseliit II 2
TBD -
Nomme Utd -
Helios 0
Ambla 4
Ganvix Turi 3
JK Retro 2
Kohtla-Jarve JK Alko 1
Viljandi 2
Jogeva 3
Igiliikur 1
Quattromed II -
TBD -
TBD -
Rakvere -
Paide Linnameeskond -
TBD -
Haiba 4
Legion 3
Viimsi MRJK -
TBD -
Flora Tallinn U21 8
JK Jalgpallihaigla 1
JK Keskerakond 1
FCI Tallinn 14
Trummi 2
JK Visadus 6
Twister Tallinn 1
Kuressaare 2
FC Ararat 10
Vastseliina Tannem 0
Viimsi JK 9
Raasiku Joker 0
Lasnamae -
SK Taaksi -
SK EPMU Tartu 1
Tulevik 3
Tammeka Tartu 4
Johvi Phoenix 0
Narva -
TBD -
Levadia Tallinn III 0
Saue JK Laagri 3
Kadakas 3
Reaal 0
TBD -
Saaremaa -
Tallinna Kalev III 3
Maccabi 4
TBD -
Taebla -
Tallinna Kalev II 0
Olympic Tallinn 2
Quattromed 9
Look Tartu 0
Metropool Parnu 1
Kivioli Irbis 7
Dinamo Tallinn 2
Sorve 1
Tartu Ulikool 0
Kaitseliit 3
Tammeka Tartu II -
Rada Kuusalu -
Kohtla-Jarve Lootus 0
Puuma 1
TBD -
Valga Warrior -
Keila JK -
TBD -
TBD -
Sillamae Kalev -
Parnu Linnameeskond 4
JK Luunja 2
Rummu Dunamo 3
SaareMaa JK aaMeraaS 1
Kardla 3
Tabasalu 0
Navi Vutiselts 1
Lihula JK 0
PSK Alexela 2
Maardu Linnameeskond 4
Jarva-Jaani 3
Imavere Forss 2
Pubi Trehv -
TBD -
Castovanni Eagles 1
Voru 3
Elva -
TBD -
FC Hell Hunt 1
Elva 4
Koeru -
TBD -
Pohja-Sakala 3
FCI Tallinn II 1
Tallinn Piraaja 1
Tartu SK 10 5
Kristiine 2
Kalju II 3
Eston Villa 2
Lelle 0
Flora 12
Loo JK 0
1/32-finals
Kalju 4
Tallinna Kalev 0
Otepaa 0
Tartu SK 10 II 1
Rapla 4
Saku Sporting 3
Pokkeriprod 0
Levadia 18
Velldoris 2
Kalju III 0
Paide Linnameeskond U21 1
FC Lootos Polva 3
Kose 2
Nomme Utd 1
Ambla 1
Ganvix Turi 6
Viljandi 6
Jogeva 1
Quattromed II 0
Rakvere 8
Paide Linnameeskond 10
Haiba 0
Viimsi MRJK 0
Flora Tallinn U21 6
FCI Tallinn 1
JK Visadus 0
Kuressaare 2
FC Ararat 3
Viimsi JK 2
Lasnamae 0
Tulevik 0
Tammeka Tartu 3
Narva 6
Saue JK Laagri 0
Kadakas 1
Saaremaa 2
Maccabi 3
Taebla 1
Olympic Tallinn 1
Quattromed 5
Kivioli Irbis 5
Dinamo Tallinn 0
Kaitseliit 2
Rada Kuusalu 3
Puuma 1
Valga Warrior 0
Keila JK 0
Sillamae Kalev 6
Parnu Linnameeskond 2
Rummu Dunamo 1
Kardla 0
Navi Vutiselts 1
Maardu Linnameeskond 5
Jarva-Jaani 0
Pubi Trehv 1
Voru 2
Elva 6
Tartu JK Welco 1
Koeru 1
Pohja-Sakala 4
Tartu SK 10 4
Kalju II 3
Eston Villa 0
Flora 6
1/16-finals
Kalju 3
Tartu SK 10 II 0
Rapla 1
Levadia 17
Velldoris 3
FC Lootos Polva 2
Kose 2
Ganvix Turi 6
Viljandi 2
Rakvere 0
Paide Linnameeskond 0
Flora Tallinn U21 1
FCI Tallinn 5
FC Ararat 0
Viimsi JK 0
Tammeka Tartu 4
Narva -
Saaremaa -
Maccabi 2
Quattromed 9
Kivioli Irbis -
Rada Kuusalu -
Puuma 0
Sillamae Kalev 2
Parnu Linnameeskond 3
Navi Vutiselts 2
Maardu Linnameeskond 0
Voru 1
Elva 2
Pohja-Sakala 1
Tartu SK 10 1
Flora 9
1/8-finals
Kalju 4
Levadia 3
Velldoris 1
Ganvix Turi 8
Viljandi 3
Flora Tallinn U21 1
FCI Tallinn 1
Tammeka Tartu 2
Narva 7
Quattromed 1
Kivioli Irbis 0
Sillamae Kalev 1
Parnu Linnameeskond 4
Voru 2
Elva 0
Flora 2
Quarter-finals
Kalju 5
Ganvix Turi 0
Viljandi -
Tammeka Tartu -
Narva 2
Sillamae Kalev 1
Parnu Linnameeskond 0
Flora 6
Semi-finals
Kalju 5
Tammeka Tartu 1
Narva 0
Flora 3
Final
Kalju 1
Flora 3
