Sport Picks
Nasarawa United vs Heartland FC Prediction & H2H Stats
Nigeria
NPFL 2024/2025 Lafia Township Stadium, Lafia 
Match Events
44'
44'
Yusuf A.
46'
46'
Sub
Suraju L. In: Ekpo D.
Out: Suraju L.
46'
46'
Sub
Nassy I. In: Shimagande T.
Out: Nassy I.
AI Match Summary
Nasarawa United in this NPFL 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nasarawa United.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Heartland FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nasarawa United lately — more wins on the board than Heartland FC.
- Model gives Heartland FC a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular NPFL 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Nasarawa United Clean Sheet 24%
Heartland FC Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nasarawa United | Heartland FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.22 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2025 NPFL
Nasarawa United vs Heartland FC
1:0
Dec 1, 2024 NPFL
Heartland FC vs Nasarawa United
3:2
Apr 6, 2022 NPFL
Nasarawa United vs Heartland FC
2:0
Dec 19, 2021 NPFL
Heartland FC vs Nasarawa United
3:3
May 23, 2021 NPFL
Nasarawa United vs Heartland FC
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nasarawa United Compare
Top Goalscorer Yusuf A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.54
Heartland FC Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nasarawa United 25 / 100
Heartland FC 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nasarawa United Heartland FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Heartland FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Nasarawa United scored in 78% of their last 32 games.
Heartland FC let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.
Recent resilience: Nasarawa United stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nasarawa United VS Heartland FC
1.5 Goals Scored 0.67
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.67
63% Over 1.5 33%
63% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Nasarawa United
(Home) 27 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 0 Niger Tornadoes
23 Sept
Kwara
2 : 1 Nasarawa United
20 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 1 Rivers United
18 Sept
Rangers International
2 : 1 Nasarawa United
06 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 0 Bendel
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 0 Niger Tornadoes
20 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 1 Rivers United
06 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 0 Bendel
17 Jun
Nasarawa United
1 : 2 Ikorodu City
11 Jun
Nasarawa United
2 : 1 Plateau United
Page 1 of 4
Heartland FC
(Away) 11 Apr
Heartland FC
1 : 0 Crown FC
04 Apr
Edel FC
0 : 0 Heartland FC
01 Apr
Inter Lagos
2 : 1 Heartland FC
28 Mar
Heartland FC
3 : 0 Gateway United
14 Mar
Heartland FC
1 : 0 Sunshine Stars
Page 1 of 6
04 Apr
Edel FC
0 : 0 Heartland FC
01 Apr
Inter Lagos
2 : 1 Heartland FC
14 Feb
Beyond Limits FC
1 : 0 Heartland FC
15 Jan
Smart City
2 : 1 Heartland FC
03 Jan
Abia Comets
1 : 3 Heartland FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remo Stars | 38 | 22 | 5 | 11 | 49:31 | 71 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 35:29 | 64 |
| 3 | Abia Warriors | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 43:40 | 60 |
| 4 | Ikorodu City | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 60:45 | 59 |
| 5 | Bendel | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 39:33 | 56 |
| 6 | Enyimba International | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 38:35 | 55 |
| 7 | Plateau United | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 40:38 | 54 |
| 8 | Shooting | 38 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 39:38 | 54 |
| 9 | Kano Pillars | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 44:45 | 53 |
| 10 | Rangers International | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 42:34 | 52 |
| 11 | Bayelsa United | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 39:36 | 52 |
| 12 | Nasarawa United | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 40:41 | 52 |
| 13 | Niger Tornadoes | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 40:46 | 51 |
| 14 | Kwara | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 38:36 | 50 |
| 15 | Katsina Utd | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 30:36 | 50 |
| 16 | El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 34:41 | 49 |
| 17 | Heartland FC | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 33:34 | 48 |
| 18 | Akwa United | 38 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 35:39 | 44 |
| 19 | Sunshine Stars | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 34:51 | 41 |
| 20 | Lobi | 38 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 29:56 | 28 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
