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Nautico vs Afogados da Ingazeira

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2025 Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos)
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Vinicius Alves
7' Event
Kayon
33'
Sub
Filipe Eduardo In: Acaua
Out: Filipe Eduardo

AI Match Summary

The Pernambucano 2025 game between Nautico and Afogados da Ingazeira finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nautico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Nautico
20%
Draws
38%
Afogados da Ingazeira
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nautico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nautico come out ahead of Afogados da Ingazeira on wins alone.
  • Model gives Nautico a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Pernambucano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Nautico have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Nautico Clean Sheet 20%
Afogados da Ingazeira Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nautico Afogados da Ingazeira
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.63 0
Goals Conceded 1.25 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Pernambucano
Nautico vs Afogados da Ingazeira
4:0
Mar 1, 2024 Pernambucano
Nautico vs Afogados da Ingazeira
2:0
Jan 18, 2024 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Nautico
0:1
Feb 7, 2023 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Nautico
0:1
Feb 27, 2022 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Nautico
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nautico Compare

Top Goalscorer Kayon
1 Goals
Assists Leader Helio Borges
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Afogados da Ingazeira Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico 42 / 100
Afogados da Ingazeira 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nautico Afogados da Ingazeira

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nautico found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

Afogados da Ingazeira let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Nautico stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nautico VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Cruz962114:420
2Maguary952213:1017
3Nautico951315:916
4Sport Recife943217:815
5Decisao934211:1213
6Retro93338:1012
7Jaguar932410:1611
8Central SC92348:99
9Afogados da Ingazeira90545:135
10Petrolina90364:143