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Nautico vs Sport Recife Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2026 Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos), Recife
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Iury Castilho
19'
Ze Gabriel
24'
Arnaldo

AI Match Summary

Sport Recife in this Pernambucano 2026 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Nautico
15%
Draws
39%
Sport Recife
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nautico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sport Recife lately — more wins on the board than Nautico.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Sport Recife arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Nautico, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Nautico Clean Sheet 16%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nautico Sport Recife
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.31 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Serie B
Nautico vs Sport Recife
3:1
May 30, 2026 Serie B
Sport Recife vs Nautico
2:0
Mar 8, 2026 Pernambucano
Nautico vs Sport Recife
0:3
Mar 1, 2026 Pernambucano
Sport Recife vs Nautico
3:3
Jan 18, 2026 Pernambucano
Nautico vs Sport Recife
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nautico Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sport Recife Compare

Top Goalscorer Iury Castilho
2 Goals
Assists Leader Augusto
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico 31 / 100
Sport Recife 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nautico Sport Recife

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Nautico found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Sport Recife's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Nautico remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nautico VS Sport Recife
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nautico

(Home)
26 Sept
Nautico
3 : 1
Sport Recife
22 Sept
Cuiaba
3 : 0
Nautico
15 Sept
Nautico
3 : 3
Operario-PR
09 Sept
America MG
2 : 1
Nautico
03 Sept
Nautico
1 : 0
Botafogo SP
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Sport Recife

(Away)
26 Sept
Nautico
3 : 1
Sport Recife
19 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 1
EC Juventude
16 Sept
CRB
2 : 1
Sport Recife
11 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
05 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Sport Recife
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nautico -
TBD -
Santa Cruz 3
Decisao 1
Sport Recife -
TBD -
Retro 3
Maguary 2
Semi-finals
Nautico 3
Santa Cruz 0
Sport Recife 4
Retro 2
Final
Nautico 3
Sport Recife 6