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Naval 1893 vs Fatima

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Costa P.
78' Event
Rodrigues R.
80' Event
Costa P.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Naval 1893 and Fatima finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naval 1893.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Naval 1893
20%
Draws
33%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Naval 1893

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Naval 1893 come out ahead of Fatima on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Naval 1893 Clean Sheet 68%
Fatima Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naval 1893 Fatima
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.34 1
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Naval 1893
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs Fatima
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naval 1893 Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigues R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Fatima Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naval 1893 41 / 100
Fatima 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naval 1893 Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Naval 1893 scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Fatima let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Naval 1893 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naval 1893 VS Fatima
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Naval 1893

(Home)
15 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0
Naval 1893
18 Apr
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
12 Apr
Os Marialvas
0 : 0
Naval 1893
04 Apr
Naval 1893
2 : 1
Lajense
22 Mar
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

Fatima

(Away)
18 Apr
Fatima
4 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
12 Apr
Electrico FC
0 : 3
Fatima
04 Apr
Fatima
2 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
29 Mar
Fatima
0 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
22 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 0
Fatima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)