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Naviraiense vs Dourados

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense game between Naviraiense and Dourados finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naviraiense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Naviraiense
39%
Draws
31%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Naviraiense's 1.63 goals per match outpaces what Dourados have produced (1.5).
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 20%
Dourados Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naviraiense Dourados
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 13 13
Draws 9 11
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Dourados
3:1
Feb 15, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Naviraiense
2:0
Apr 6, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Dourados
4:1
Mar 19, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Naviraiense
1:3
Mar 13, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Naviraiense
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naviraiense 31 / 100
Dourados 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naviraiense Dourados

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Naviraiense scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Dourados conceded in 63% of 32 recent games.

Naviraiense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Naviraiense VS Dourados
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Naviraiense953113:918
2Operario MS945014:517
3Corumbaense934210:713
4Ivinhema933310:1112
5Bataguassu933315:1712
6Dourados924315:1410
7Clube de Regatas Aquidauana924312:1310
8Pantanal923410:159
9Costa Rica91536:108
10Aguia Negra91449:137